The new Glass-Steagall repeal

The 2008 financial collapse had its roots in the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act back in the 90s under Bill Clinton. It took 10 years for banks to chip away at barriers separating traditional investment functions like prop trading and retail banking functions like providing FDIC secured accounts to individuals. The upshot of the repeal was that ultimately, problems in the investment banking division of a bank could take down the whole bank and directly affect the daily lives of individuals.

As I prepare to leave the United States, I have moved all my liquid assets into a single account. Now I need to decide what to do with this money. Should I invest it in the stock market right away or keep the powder dry for an upcoming collapse in the market?

The next collapse will probably not be because of sub-prime lending. The rest of this post is about what decision taken today by this administration can take down the economy a decade from today.

• nuclear war: DJT is a crazy man with nuclear weapons. He's in a battle of words with NK. NK can attack Japan or South Korea with their own missiles. Maybe NK's military is all hot air like Iraq's military under Saddam Hussein but it's hard to know. On the flip side, China will not stand by as NK lays nuclear devastation at her doorstep. I'd give nuclear war a 50:50 probability right now.

• changing attitudes towards globalization: DJT tapped into antipathy towards immigration to capture the presidency. More and more people are leaving the States because of this changed attitude. As immigration to the States falters, the world's largest economy is in structural peril. Population growth from immigration props up the US economy. These immigrants do STEM jobs, they do menial labor, they do research in advanced sciences. They have children at higher rates than native born citizens. So, if DJT wins the argument against globalization by surviving his first term and getting reelected, the world economy will be in serious danger.

• environment: DJT is the worst thing the planet needs as far as climate change is concerned. Can regular terrible weather wreck the economy? I'm no meteorologist but I feel terrible weather will have localized effects. Of course, if something catastrophic happened like the Big One hitting California, the market could be in danger.

If I had to put my money on it, the war on globalization is the true structural threat to the economy. I will be watching for signals that people are immigrating less to the US. Maybe tourism falters. There could be a myriad little hints but taken together, these could be the canaries in the coal mine.